Tories set to lose over 100 seats and five cabinet ministers at risk from wipe-out, poll predicts

Boris Johnson has been warned his party is set to lose more than 100 seats if he fails to curb anger over sleaze, with five cabinet ministers on course for defeat at the next general election.

A major new poll and constituency-by-constituency analysis shows the Conservatives’ majority would be wiped out, leaving Labour the largest party in a hung parliament.

Labour is on 41 per cent – six points clear of the Conservatives on 35 per cent, according to the huge Survation survey of 10,000 adults carried out on behalf of campaign group 38 Degrees.

The Tories would win 255 seats, a net loss of 111, while Labour would return 309 seats – just 11 short of a majority, according to multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) analysis.

Mr Johnson would be one of the cabinet members projected to lose their seats, the study found. The others on course for defeat are environment secretary George Eustice, Scottish secretary Alister Jack, Welsh secretary Simon Hart and Cop26 president Alok Sharma.

The survey revealed that older voters and those in rural areas are most likely to be concerned by the recent sleaze scandals and lockdown party allegations which have engulfed No 10.

“Given that older voters are ordinarily much more likely to vote Conservative, this shows the potential for accusations of sleaze to shift votes by depriving the Conservatives of this important electoral bulwark,” said Prof Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University, who helped carry out the MRP analysis.

Of 40 crucial “red wall” Tory seats in the north of England and Midlands, only three – Dudley North, Morley & Outwood and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland – are projected to be held by Mr Johnson’s party.

And the party faces electoral wipe out in Scotland, where the SNP is on course win all of Conservative Party’s seats – including Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross’ Moray constituency.

A separate Focaldata poll published on Sunday gave Labour an eight-point lead over the Tories and indicated they would win a majority.

But polling guru Sir John Curtice cautioned against over-interpreting the strength of the opposition’s poll lead over the past few weeks – saying Sir Keir Starmer’s party has yet to gain voters’ trust.

“We are talking about a collapse in the Tory vote, not a revival of the Labour party,” he told the i. “The point is that Labour still have to make any kind of significant advance in their own popularity. This is all about the Tories going down the tubes.”

It comes a major Tory donor questioned whether Mr Johnson should be replaced. “What really concerns me is this sleaze issue and him not standing firmly enough against what’s gone on,” John Caudwell, the founder of Phones4U told The Observer.

“I was unbelievably disappointed when I heard him almost defending and … trying to find an out for Owen Paterson. I’m not sure he can survive this, and I’m not even sure he should survive it.”


Douglas Mateo

Douglas holds a position as a content writer at Neptune Pine. His academic qualifications in journalism and home science have offered her a wide base from which to line various topics. He has a proficiency in scripting articles related to the Health industry, including new findings, disease-related, or epidemic-related news. Apart from this, Douglas writes an independent blog and assists people in living healthy life.

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